#418 Ray Dalio on the Risky Period for Investors, Bubble Warnings, and a Coming Debt Squeeze

<p>Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins The Julia La Roche Show for a special episode featuring their fireside chat from the Greenwich Economic Forum. Dalio explains the five forces he sees driving today&#39;s world: the debt cycle, internal political conflict, the breakdown of the post-1945 geopolitical order, acts of nature, and technology, especially AI. He says rising bond yields reflect a basic supply-and-demand problem. Washington spends about $7 trillion a year but takes in about $5 trillion, and foreign buyers like China and Japan are pulling back. He warns that a debt &quot;heart attack&quot; is likely within the next two years. He calls the period after the midterms and through 2028 especially risky, and says markets are in a bubble by his own indicators, comparing today to the tech boom before 1929. Dalio also discusses why he recommends 5–15% in gold, why he holds only about 1% in Bitcoin, and where he sees opportunity: companies being transformed by AI, ASEAN countries, Singapore, the UAE, and inflation-indexed bonds with real yields near 3%. He closes with the three things that make a country successful. A special thank you to the Greenwich Economic Forum for having me as a moderator! Visit <a href="https://www.thegeforum.com/">https://www.thegeforum.com/</a> </p><p><br></p><p>Thank you to The Julia La Roche Show sponsors:</p><p><strong>Augusta Precious Metals</strong> — To learn more, visit <a href="https://juliabuysgold.com/">https://juliabuysgold.com/</a> or text “Julia&quot; to 35052</p><p><strong>Monetary Metals</strong> - learn more at <a href="https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/">https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/</a></p><p><br></p><p>Links: </p><p>Website: <a href="https://www.principles.com/">https://www.principles.com/</a></p><p>X: <a href="https://x.com/RayDalio">https://x.com/RayDalio</a></p><p>LinkedIn: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/">https://www.linkedin.com/in/raydalio/</a></p><p><br></p><p>Timestamps:</p><p>0:00 Welcome + Greenwich Economic Forum<br>1:03 Dalio&#39;s five forces, and the lesson of Nixon in 1971<br>6:20 Acts of nature, a super El Niño, and AI as a world-changing force<br>7:54 Is the U.S. moving from Stage 5 to Stage 6?<br>9:15 Why bond yields are rising: supply, demand, and $2T deficits<br>12:38 Is a debt &quot;heart attack&quot; coming? Dalio&#39;s timeline<br>16:18 Midterms, internal conflict, and weak expected stock returns<br>17:41 Are we in a bubble? Lessons from 1929<b