Why the house doesn’t always win

When U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said "I am the house," Philip Petursson, Chief Investment Strategist at IG Wealth Management, took issue with the comparison. A casino is the house because the math structurally favours it. The U.S. Treasury is something else entirely: issuer, debtor, refinancing agent, regulator and occasional buyer, all at once. And at the end of every one of those roles sits the same requirement: roughly $30 trillion of government debt has to live on somebody else's balance sheet. Philip explains why the Treasury needs the market far more than the market needs the Treasury, why the buyback program won't fix the real problem and why the bond market is betting that Bessent loses.