22-Year High Yields. Record Diesel. McDonald's Gave Up on 2%.

Peter Schiff on 22-year high yields, record diesel, McDonald's inflation warning, and Trump's claim he told Warsh how to vote.

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Peter Schiff reviews the rise in Treasury yields to multi-decade highs and what 5% rates would mean for interest on the $40 trillion national debt. He opens with a comment Donald Trump made after the Fed's 25 basis point hike: that he told Kevin Warsh he "might as well vote with the board." Peter argues that either Trump is lying or, if the conversation happened, the Fed chairman is clearing his votes with the president, and that Warsh should be asked directly at the next press conference.

He then turns to the bond market. The five-year auction cleared at 5.03%, the highest in just over 20 years; the 30-year reached 5.41%, a 22-year high, and the 10-year hit 5.12%. He expects the 10/30 spread, now under 30 basis points, to widen back toward 50 or more, and suggests shorting the 30-year against the 10-year. If the government pays 5% on $40 trillion, interest would run $2 trillion a year, about 35% of tax revenue and more than Social Security, with the debt growing by more than $3 trillion a year. He says stock investors still assume yields are near a top.

McDonald's stock fell about 5% after its CEO said inflation would stay elevated for "many more years," which Peter contrasts with Warsh's claim that expectations are anchored at 2%. He agrees with Warsh that growth does not cause inflation; loose monetary policy does.

Diesel set another record above $6.50 a gallon, near $10 in California. Peter argues a diesel export ban would cut production, and that drawing down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve leaves nothing for a real emergency.

On the midterms, he notes Democrats are now 65% favorites to take the Senate, with cost of living the top issue, and blames Trump rather than Biden for inflation, while the Gulf conflict looks to be worsening. He criticizes the White House for pulling credentials from CNN, Politico and MS Now, recounts Trump's reaction to h