The Most Dangerous Weeks of the Iran War Are Here | Robert Pape

<p>We’re in the most dangerous weeks of the Iran war since March, and the midterms are the reason. Professor Robert Pape returns to explain the wicked incentives pushing President Trump toward escalation before November 3rd, and why every option likely landing on his desk hands Tehran the advantage.</p>

<p>Pape walks through the three clocks converging on the midterms. The USS Theodore Roosevelt and a second Marine Expeditionary Unit are closing within striking range of Iran. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has plateaued while Iran strikes more tankers in Hormuz than in any week of the war. And inflation inside Iran, which Pape puts near 100%, is tempting Washington to try to break Iran’s economy with air power.</p>

<p>He explains why striking Iran’s refineries could invite a retaliatory strike on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq facility that would hurt America more than Iran, and why landing Marines on Larak Island, Hormuz Island, or near Chabahar would hand Iran fixed targets without breaking its kill chain. We also cover the recent Tel Aviv flight incident, the drone threat that moved U.S. B-1 bombers out of an RAF base, and what history says about how long it takes a suicide terrorism campaign to reach the U.S. homeland once ground forces are committed.</p>

<p>Want Pape’s take on whether the Mecca Pact pulls Pakistan and Turkey into this war, and whether the overlapping U.S. and Israeli elections double the danger? The rest of the conversation is available in The Briefing Room, our members-only community on YouTube: [MEMBERSHIP LINK]</p>

<p>Read Robert Pape’s Substack, The Escalation Trap: <a href="https://escalationtrap.substack.com">https://escalationtrap.substack.com</a><br>

Follow Scott on Substack: <a href="https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg">https://substack.com/@scottatthewatersedgeorg</a><br>

Watch on YouTube: [YOUTUBE LINK]</p>

<p>At the Water’s Edge brings you insights beyond the headlines, with a practitioner’s view on national security and geopolitics. Hosted by Scott Kelly, former Green Beret and founder of Grayzone Advisory.</p>

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