Is China's Economic Miracle Over? | China Considered | Hoover Institution

In a new episode of China Considered, Elizabeth Economy sits down with Logan Wright, partner at Rhodium Group and author of the forthcoming book Broken China: How the Economic Miracle Shattered and What It Means for the World (Polity, 2026), to reconcile the competing narratives about China’s economy: inexorable rise, “K-shaped” growth, or “peak China.” Wright argues that the financial system that once fueled China’s growth now constrains it—after the largest single-country credit expansion in more than a century, Beijing keeps rolling over loans to unproductive state firms rather than absorbing losses, leaving it unable to fund the sectors that could drive future growth.

The two discuss why household consumption is stuck at roughly one percent growth, how Xi Jinping’s centralization of power has created new financial risks and stalled structural reform, the demographic and youth-employment squeeze produced by a capital-intensive growth model, and what signals would indicate a real change of course in Beijing. They close with Wright’s assessment of what the Trump administration has gotten right and wrong on China, why a coordinated allied response to Chinese exports matters more than unilateral tariffs, and what he is watching for at the upcoming Trump–Xi summit.

Recorded on September 4, 2026.

ABOUT THE SERIES

China Considered with Elizabeth Economy is a Hoover Institution podcast series that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.