Washington Is About to Make the Energy Crisis a Whole Lot Worse

Eight months into the US-Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz is still contested—and the oil shock nearly everyone predicted never arrived.

Gregory Brew, senior energy analyst at Eurasia Group and a historian of modern Iran, explains why crude sits in the $90–$110 band instead of $250: alternative pipeline routes, high global inventories, a steep cut in Chinese imports, and an oil market practiced at absorbing shocks. He also breaks down the US escort operation moving 9 to 10 million barrels a day through the strait—supertankers running dark through the Omani channel—and why he calls it a Band-Aid.Also: the attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, Iranian production down to 2 million barrels a day, record US diesel prices ahead of the midterms, and why Brew expects Tehran to escalate rather than capitulate.

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Chapters:

0:00 Intro: Gregory Brew on the Oil War

0:22 Why the $250 Oil Catastrophe Never Came

4:59 7-Day Regional Oil Exports Average ~17 Million Barrels

9:18 Supertankers Going Dark Through the Omani Channel

11:41 How Long Can US Navy Keep Up Its Escort Operation Through Strait?

15:08 Qatar's LNG Problem

17:46 Yemen and the Attack on the East-West Pipeline