Excess Returns

← Excess Returns26 Sept · 1 h 14 min

We Asked the Data Journalist Who Rebuilt the Jobs Report What the Headline Number Hides

We Asked the Data Journalist Who Rebuilt the Jobs Report What the Headline Number Hides26 Sept1 h 14 min

<p>What are headline jobs and inflation numbers missing about the economy investors actually face? Eric Pachman of Data 4 The People joins Matt Zeigler to examine how a changing workforce, rising fuel costs, and differences in household spending could affect inflation, consumer demand, and corporate margins.</p><p>Using interactive data tools, Eric looks beneath monthly payroll reports, maps changes in America's labor force, and traces how diesel prices can work their way into retail prices. He also shares a grocery-price study that challenged his own assumptions about CPI and explains how he is using AI to make rigorous data journalism more accessible.</p><p>Topics covered:</p><ul><li>Why monthly jobs reports need context, including survey uncertainty and revisions</li><li>How to spot unusual industry-level payroll changes and assess the quality of jobs added</li><li>What county-level labor force trends reveal about aging and rural America</li><li>Eric Pachman's research on foreign-born workers and the limits of replacement assumptions</li><li>How a shrinking supply of workers could create pressure on service prices</li><li>How diesel costs flow through freight surcharges, retailer margins, and consumer prices</li><li>What to watch for in retailer earnings calls as companies weigh price increases</li><li>Why household income, driving habits, and spending patterns change the experience of inflation</li><li>What Eric Pachman's Kroger study found about CPI, the Thrifty Food Plan, and store brands</li><li>Using AI to test assumptions and expand access to data journalism</li></ul><p>Explore Eric Pachman's research and interactive tools:<br /><a href="https://www.data4thepeople.com/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.data4thepeople.com/</a></p><p>The Men Who Vanished: Testing Labor Market Displacement<br /><a href="https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/the-men-who-vanished" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/the-men-who-vanished</a></p><p>How do the government's grocery prices stack up against the real ones?<br /><a href="https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/kroger-shelf-vs-cpi-thrifty-food-plan/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/kroger-shelf-vs-cpi-thrifty-food-plan/</a></p><p>Chapters:<br />00:00 Introduction and Data 4 The People's mission<br />09:20 Spotting unusual changes in the jobs data<br />18:27 Mapping America's changing labor force<br />27:00 For