Why This Miner Refuses to Pivot to AI w/ Raphael Zagury

<p>🔗 GUEST LINKS</p><p>- Raphael Zagury (LinkedIn): https://www.linkedin.com/in/rzagury/</p><p>- Elektron Energy: https://elektronenergy.io/</p><p>- Twitter/X: @alphazeta (&quot;Here Be Dragons&quot; &amp; monthly mining reports)</p><p><br></p><p>🛠 SPONSORED BY</p><p>- Luxor – Mining software, firmware &amp; hashrate tools</p><p> https://luxor.tech/</p><p>- Altair Technology – ASIC hardware, replacement parts &amp; mining infrastructure</p><p> Code: HASHRATEUP</p><p> https://altairtech.io/aff/125/</p><p><br></p><p>📄 OVERVIEW</p><p>Everyone&#39;s leaving Bitcoin mining for AI. Raphael Zagury — co-founder &amp; CEO of Elektron Energy, one of the largest private Bitcoin miners in the world — explains why they&#39;re doing the exact opposite.</p><p><br></p><p>We break down the first-ever hash rate bear market: why this cycle feels different, why hash rate has been grinding down since October (not crashing like the China ban), and what happens when 60-70% of machines get wiped out at the next hashprice halving. Raphael makes the contrarian case that right now is one of the best times ever to start mining — if you can survive on the left side of the cost curve.</p><p><br></p><p>We also get into why Elektron refuses to pivot to AI/HPC, how they pitch mining to institutions like Fidelity, the self-correcting mechanism in hashprice, and why stranded energy in Brazil and Africa is the real opportunity nobody&#39;s pricing in.</p><p><br></p><p>⏱ TIMESTAMPS</p><p>0:00 – Intro</p><p>0:47 – World Cup, bear markets &amp; Bitcoin cycles</p><p>2:49 – The first-ever hash rate bear market explained</p><p>3:36 – How this affects one of the largest private miners</p><p>3:53 – Why this isn&#39;t the China ban (gradual grind vs sharp drop)</p><p>5:33 – Why miners are fleeing to AI/HPC</p><p>6:50 – Why Elektron sees this as an opportunity</p><p>8:19 – The risks in AI/HPC nobody is pricing</p><p>9:05 – Pitching mining to Fidelity &amp; institutions</p><p>9:30 – Unit economics: mining is still profitable</p><p>10:32 – Cost curve &amp; the self-correcting mechanism</p><p>11:14 – What happens when 60-70% of machines shut off</p><p>13:02 – Why institutions love contrarian miners</p><p>14:37 – The AI pivot &amp; hash rate on the way back up</p><p>16:32 – When does mining beat just buying Bitcoin?</p><p>19:08 – Why this story is so hard to tell investors</p><p>20:25 – Market share, path dependency &amp; hash rate dynamics</p><p>22:20 – Why now is one of the best times to start mining</p><p>22:45 – Capital &amp; capital structure in mining</p><p>23:40 – Why the AI boom will boom and bust</p><p>24:19 – Building the optionality stack around energy</p><p>25:17 – Why AI/HPC innovation is still dangerously early</p><p>28:34 – electronics.dev: open-sourcing mining research</p><p>30:29 – The efficiency curve (log scale) explained</p><p>31:50 – Predicting the S23s with a regression line</p><p>32:14 – Why efficiency gains are about to flatten</p><p>32:42 – Network composition: S19s, S21s, S23s</p><p>33:38 – Machine-by-machine break-evens &amp; cost to mine</p><p>34:58 – What a hashprice halving does to the network</p><p>36:11 – Summer heat &amp; temperature-sensitive machines</p><p>36:36 – The shareholder-money era &amp; underwater machines</p><p>40:17 – Stranded energy: wind in Brazil, curtailment credits</p><p>42:19 – Bitcoin&#39;s only customer is the protocol</p><p>42:39 – Old S19s at $30: 6-month ROI vs 10-year energy ROI</p><p>43:11 – Why Raphael is bullish on mining in Africa</p><p>47:28 – Speaking the language of energy &amp; TradFi</p><p>48:08 – Batteries vs miners: a tenth of the capex</p><p>49:54 – &quot;Buyers of last resort, sellers of first resort&quot;</p><p>50:47 – RAPID FIRE: hashprice bottom, recycling, security &amp; Brazil</p><p><br></p><p>📊 KEY TOPICS</p><p>- The first hash rate bear market — gradual grind vs the China ban shock</p><p>- Why 60-70% of machines could turn off at the next hashprice halving</p><p>- The self-correcting mechanism i