Texas Senate Is a Dead Heat While Trump Sits at 46% Approval | 10/14/26

The latest Marist poll of Texas likely voters just dropped, and the Senate race is a dead heat. Democrat James Talarico is at 47%, Republican Ken Paxton at 45%. Independents are breaking for Talarico at 52%, while a majority of the same voters still think Paxton is going to win the seat anyway. That gap between the numbers and the expectation is the real story here. Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is holding a 49-45 edge over Gina Hinojosa for governor among likely voters, with seven in 10 Texans convinced the incumbent will win. The generic congressional ballot shows Republicans up five points. But Trump’s job approval in Texas is upside down at 46% approve to 54% disapprove, and 43% of likely voters say their family finances have gotten worse over the last year. Thirty-eight percent say their congressional vote is mainly against the president. These are the numbers driving the competitiveness, not some sudden leftward shift in the state. The partisan divides are sharp, the money is flowing, and the early-vote window is about to open. If you care about whether Texas stays red or whether the midterms turn into a referendum on the last year of economic pain and presidential approval, this poll is the clearest snapshot we have right now. Watch the numbers, not the spin.

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Do you trust these Marist numbers on the Texas Senate race, or do you think the likely-voter screen is off? Have you seen your own finances get worse, stay the same, or improve over the last 12 months?

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